- Trump out as President by September 30?2¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trump remains in office as the 47th president with no active constitutional process positioned to conclude by September 30. An impeachment resolution introduced in late August sits in the House Judiciary Committee without floor action or bipartisan support sufficient for swift passage and Senate conviction. Recent medical updates from May indicate stable health with no reported incapacity, and past 25th Amendment discussions have produced no Cabinet or congressional momentum. Midterm elections lie weeks beyond the resolution window, and staff transitions reflect routine turnover rather than leadership change. Traders price near-certain continuity because removal mechanisms require extended legislative timelines incompatible with the short interval, though an unforeseen health crisis or abrupt resignation could still alter the outcome.