- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?<1¢
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?<1¢
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?<1¢
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?2¢
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?4¢
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?16¢
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?14¢
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?15¢
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?18¢
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?14¢
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?24¢
Traders assign the highest implied probability to Donald Trump exceeding 200 Truth Social posts during October 20-27, 2026, consistent with his established pattern of elevated activity ahead of midterm elections. Primary drivers include the pre-election news environment, potential policy announcements, campaign events, and responses to media coverage or opponents. The broad distribution across 100-199 ranges reflects uncertainty over daily volume, influenced by his travel schedule, breaking developments, and platform engagement tactics. Consolidation toward higher bins could occur with intensified political developments or rapid news cycles, while quieter periods or external commitments might favor mid-range outcomes. Resolution hinges on verified post counts within the defined window.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.