- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?10¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?18¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in August?6¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% or more in August?2¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in August?17¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August?24¢
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in August?25¢
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Trader sentiment for the August 2026 Core PCE year-over-year reading shows a tight contest between 3.1% and 3.2%, with combined implied probabilities near 49%, underscoring uncertainty after mixed prior inflation and labor data. Recent consumer price prints, revisions to earlier months, and steady Treasury yields have kept expectations anchored without signaling rapid further disinflation, while Fed communications continue to highlight data dependence. Key swing factors include any final labor market releases or revisions ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis report, as markets aggregate real-capital bets into consensus probabilities rather than point forecasts.