- Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?89¢89%
- Will “Be Her” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?4¢4%
- Will “Somewhere Over Laredo” by Lainey Wilson win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?4¢4%
- Will “The Fall” by Cody Johnson win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?2¢2%
- Will “I Knew It, I Knew You” by Taylor Swift win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?2¢2%
Ella Langley’s record-shattering “Choosin’ Texas” drives the current market-implied odds, fueled by its unprecedented 21-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100—the longest non-holiday run in chart history—along with dominant country radio and streaming metrics. The track’s cross-genre appeal, co-production credits with Miranda Lambert, and role in Langley’s nine CMA nominations have built overwhelming industry momentum ahead of the November 18 ceremony. Nominees such as Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” Langley’s own “Be Her,” Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall” trail significantly, reflecting limited precursor support and historical voting patterns that favor the year’s defining commercial and cultural hit. Traders price in strong consensus while noting the secret-ballot unpredictability typical of CMA outcomes.
Rules
The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year. If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.