- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be less than 10,500,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 10,500,000 and 11,000,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 11,000,000 and 11,500,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 11,500,000 and 12,000,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,000,000 and 12,500,000?8¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?34¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 13,000,000 and 13,500,000?28¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 13,500,000 and 14,000,000?11¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 14,000,000 and 14,500,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be 14,500,000 or more?4¢
Trader consensus clusters around 12–14 million ballots cast in California's November 3, 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting typical midterm patterns tempered by an open-seat dynamic. With roughly 23.1 million registered voters following September updates, historical general-election totals have ranged from about 9.5 million to 14.8 million in recent cycles. Early mail-ballot returns through mid-October remain modest at low single digits, consistent with prior off-year pacing, while Democratic registrants show modestly higher return rates so far. Polling indicates strong self-reported intent to vote among likely participants, yet the race's lopsided positioning—Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead by roughly 17–25 points—has limited broad mobilization. Lower historical engagement among Latino voters and focus on affordability concerns could influence final participation, with any late surge in battleground messaging or get-out-the-vote efforts the main variables that might shift totals within the current tight band.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.