- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Goiás?96¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Goiás?3¢
Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Goiás during the October 25 runoff, driven by his decisive first-round victory in the state with 53.6% of valid votes compared to Lula’s 31.1%. Right-wing consolidation has accelerated since then, with endorsements from defeated candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema channeling additional support behind the PL nominee in this conservative-leaning agricultural state. National polling trends and the broader rightward shift evident in concurrent congressional results have reinforced expectations of continued dominance locally. Late shifts in turnout among undecided or third-party voters, or unexpected mobilization in Lula strongholds such as select northern municipalities, remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin.
Rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).