Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Tereza Cristina finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Camilo Santana finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Will Fernando Haddad finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round consistently places President Lula da Silva first near 40 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro second near 32–35 percent, leaving a fragmented field for third. Renan Santos, the Mission Party nominee and anti-establishment activist, has posted the strongest gains among younger voters and on digital platforms, lifting his share into the low-to-mid single digits in multiple surveys. Ronaldo Caiado, the PSD governor of Goiás with established party machinery, registers comparable or slightly lower figures but lacks Santos’s recent momentum. Romeu Zema and other center-right governors trail further behind as support remains dispersed. Trader pricing for third place reflects this dynamic, with Santos viewed as the likeliest beneficiary of opposition fragmentation and youth turnout trends ahead of scheduled debates.