Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?<1¢
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?74¢
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?23¢
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1¢
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan's October 29-30 meeting, reflecting the central bank's gradual normalization pace after lifting the policy rate to 1% in June and holding steady in July. Persistent core inflation near 1.7% year-over-year, with July readings expected around 1.8% amid energy cost pressures, alongside tight labor markets and wage gains, supports the case for measured tightening but has not yet shifted consensus toward an immediate October move. Recent downward revisions to the BOJ's FY2026 inflation forecast and the September meeting preceding October keep trader focus on incoming CPI and producer price data, while yen stability and global monetary conditions reinforce expectations for a 25 basis point hike probability remaining secondary.