- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?1¢1%
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?92¢92%
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?7¢7%
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?1¢1%
- 0.7%50+ bps increase$6.6k Vol.
- 1%25 bps increase$9.5k Vol.
- 2%92%No Change$26.9k Vol.
- 1%7%25 bps decrease$20.8k Vol.
- 1%50+ bps decrease$9.4k Vol.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s November pause at the 13.75% Selic rate, following Lula’s reelection and amid rising inflation expectations, has anchored trader consensus at 90.5% odds for no change in December. Focus survey projections shifted to hold the benchmark through year-end as supply shocks—oil prices, El Niño effects, labor-rule changes, and real depreciation—lifted 2026-2027 IPCA forecasts above target while below-potential growth limited second-round risks. Minutes emphasized a high bar for hikes and the need for caution, with the rate viewed as substantially contractionary. A clear fiscal tightening signal or sharper slowdown could still open the door to a modest cut, though persistent price pressures make that unlikely near term.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.