- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?91¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?9¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Arizona's 5th congressional district carries an R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential cycles and making it one of the more reliably GOP-leaning seats in the state. The open-seat race follows incumbent Andy Biggs's retirement to pursue the governorship, with Mark Lamb securing the Republican nomination after prevailing in the July primary. Elizabeth Lee emerged as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus at 90.5% for the Republican reflects this structural edge, established primary results, and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the balance. Late-campaign developments such as candidate scandals, health events, or a pronounced national shift in turnout or economic sentiment could still narrow the margin before the November general election.