- Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?<1¢<1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?<1¢<1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?3¢3%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?92¢92%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?1¢1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?<1¢<1%
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?1¢1%
- 0.3%<20%$8.2k Vol.
- 0.4%20-24.9%$5.9k Vol.
- 2%3.4%25-29.9%$25.4k Vol.
- 4%91.7%30.0-34.9%$36.4k Vol.
- 1%1.1%35–39.9%$7k Vol.
- 0.4%40-44.9%$6k Vol.
- 1%1.2%45%+$6.5k Vol.
Argentina's central bank survey released November 5 showed analysts revising 2026 year-end inflation to a 30.4% median forecast, up slightly from prior estimates amid softer GDP growth projections of just 0.7%. September CPI rose 1.9% month-over-month for a 33.4% annual rate, with core measures easing and monthly prints expected to remain below 2% through December. Milei's fiscal austerity, tight monetary policy, and managed exchange-rate depreciation have sustained the disinflation trend from triple-digit levels, anchoring trader consensus around the 30-34.9% band. Upcoming monthly releases and any shifts in regulated prices represent the main near-term variables for the annual outcome.
Rules
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.