- Will AP call US Senate control by November 3, 10:59 PM?23¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 3, 11:59 PM?42¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?48¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?74¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?79¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?79¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 13, 11:59 PM?80¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by November 18, 11:59 PM?82¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by December 2, 11:59 PM?87¢
- Will AP call US Senate control by January 4, 11:59 PM?97¢
Recent polling averages and forecaster adjustments show Democrats holding a modest edge in the battle for Senate control, with several Republican-held seats in states such as Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Kansas now rated as competitive or leaning Democratic. Cook Political Report recently shifted ratings in South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats while moving Minnesota closer to Republicans, reflecting tightening margins amid voter concerns over economic conditions and foreign policy. President Trump has increased campaign activity for GOP candidates in key states, while Democratic challengers benefit from stronger fundraising in several contests. With Election Day on November 3, 2026, the narrow projected margins in toss-up races could delay a definitive AP call on majority control until additional ballots are counted or recounts resolved.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press calls control of the United States Senate for the Congress that will convene following the 2026 midterm elections by the specified date and time (ET). Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Only calls that Senate control has been determined will qualify. Individual race calls that do not state that Senate control has been determined will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press.