- Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?1¢1%
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?1¢1%
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?16¢16%
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?43¢43%
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?30¢30%
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?9¢9%
- Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?<1¢<1%
- 1.3%<0.6T$33.9k Vol.
- 1%1.3%0.6–0.9T$51.7k Vol.
- 2%16.3%0.9–1.2T$115.5k Vol.
- 5%43.3%1.2–1.5T$83.4k Vol.
- 29.9%1.5–1.8T$106.3k Vol.
- 3%9%1.8T+$433.2k Vol.
- 0.3%No IPO by December 31, 2027$72.1k Vol.
Anthropic’s November 10 IPO filing, which set a $70–$78 share price range implying up to roughly $1.4 trillion fully diluted valuation on 13 billion shares outstanding after the offering, anchors trader sentiment around the 1.2–1.5T bracket. Strong roadshow demand, including reports of potential pricing above the range, combined with $81 billion run-rate revenue as of late October and a concurrent $26 billion private placement from suppliers such as Nvidia, Google, and AMD, supports the elevated 1.5–1.8T odds as well. These outcomes reflect trader consensus that first-day trading momentum on the planned November 19 Nasdaq debut could expand the initial market cap beyond the filed terms while remaining below earlier $2 trillion speculation. Massive compute commitments nearing $900 billion and continued Claude model releases add context on scaling costs versus growth, though the imminent pricing on November 18 remains the key near-term catalyst.
Rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.