- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?95¢95%
- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $2M and $3M?2¢2%
- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3M and $4M?4¢4%
- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $4M and $5M?<1¢<1%
- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5M and $6M?2¢2%
- Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least $6M?2¢2%
The severely restricted theatrical rollout for “Ali G: Who Iz I?”—limited to one weekend in roughly 125 theaters with minimal daily screenings—drives the overwhelming 95% market-implied probability of an opening weekend below $2 million. Amazon MGM Studios scaled back from earlier wide-release plans amid online backlash over the character’s satirical style and Cohen’s directorial debut, shifting focus quickly to Prime Video just days later. Weak presales, mixed-to-negative early reviews, and competition from stronger fall titles reinforced the low expectations. An upset above $3 million would require last-minute screen additions or unexpected audience turnout that contradicts the confirmed limited engagement and rapid streaming pivot.
Rules
This market will resolve according to how much "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.