- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?25¢
Right-wing gains in Brazil’s October legislative elections have boosted calls for impeaching Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, with Bolsonaro allies nearing the 54 Senate votes required for removal over his rulings in coup-related cases and recent enforcement actions against the former president’s son. However, the Senate has never removed a justice, dozens of prior impeachment petitions have stalled at the chamber president’s discretion, and the new Congress does not convene until 2027. Internal court adjustments, including his September reassignment from the fake-news inquiry, and the ongoing presidential runoff have not altered these structural barriers. Traders therefore assign a 76.5% implied probability that Moraes remains in office.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.