- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?19¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent revelations of messages linking Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro have prompted renewed impeachment petitions in the Senate—reaching dozens for Moraes alone—and editorial calls for resignation. These developments follow earlier scrutiny tied to his rulings on former President Jair Bolsonaro. However, removal requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote, a threshold never met for any STF justice, with the chamber president historically declining to advance such requests. The court itself would first need to authorize any formal investigation, a step that does not trigger automatic suspension. With Brazil’s October elections approaching and institutional resistance evident, traders assign an 81.5% probability that Moraes remains in office.