- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be less than 230,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 230,000 and 245,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 245,000 and 260,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 260,000 and 275,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 275,000 and 290,000?16¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 290,000 and 305,000?37¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 305,000 and 320,000?16¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be 320,000 or more?15¢
The closely contested U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, has heightened voter engagement ahead of the November 3 general election under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. Recent polls show the candidates separated by just a few points in first-round preferences, spurring both parties to intensify get-out-the-vote efforts in a state where total ballots often range between 280,000 and 350,000 in non-presidential cycles. Elevated primary turnout earlier this year, driven by competitive top races and shifting demographics in Anchorage, provides a baseline, while factors such as mail voting rates, early enthusiasm among independents, and any late campaign events could push totals higher or suppress participation. The narrow spread across turnout bins reflects uncertainty over how these elements will net out by Election Day.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.