- Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?90¢
- Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?<1¢
- Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?3¢
- Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?5¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026. This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections. No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026. A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
AfD leads in two of the three September 2026 German state elections. Saxony-Anhalt votes on September 6, with AfD polling at 41-42%—well ahead of the CDU at around 22-25%—and close to an absolute majority if smaller parties fall below the 5% threshold. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes on September 20, where AfD holds a narrower lead near 36% over the SPD at 29%. In Berlin, also on September 20, the Left party leads while AfD sits around 17-18% and trails. Polls have remained stable into late August, showing AfD as the strongest force in the two eastern states amid broader national trends favoring the party, while Berlin’s different dynamics keep it from leading there. The 87% market price on exactly two such outcomes reflects this consistent polling pattern and the firewall maintained by other parties against AfD coalitions.