- Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?10¢10%
Abbas Araghchi remains Iran's Foreign Minister as of early November 2026, continuing active diplomacy on post-conflict de-escalation, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional talks with Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and others. He has participated in mediation efforts tied to the 2026 war ceasefire and nuclear-related consultations. Earlier internal pressures included hardline parliamentary impeachment motions in October 2026 over unauthorized U.S. contacts and reported tensions with President Pezeshkian and parliamentary leadership in September regarding Revolutionary Guard influence. These challenges have not led to removal, though cabinet dynamics and Supreme National Security Council decisions under the current administration could still shift his position ahead of any market resolution date.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.