- Zhang Youxia 会在 2027 年前被判处监禁吗？9¢9%
Zhang Youxia, former vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026, expelled from the Communist Party and military in September, and had the decision ratified at the Fifth Plenum in late October. His case was transferred to military prosecutors for review and prosecution on charges including factionalism, disloyalty, and large-scale graft. Comparable high-level PLA corruption cases have typically required 18–24 months from expulsion to a public military-court sentence, placing any verdict well after the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Zhang’s age and reported health concerns further align with precedents in which senior figures receive delayed or non-public handling. With only weeks remaining before the cutoff and no reported trial proceedings, traders assign a 91.5% probability that sentencing will not occur before 2027.
规则
如果中国将军张又侠因任何指控被判处任何刑期的监禁，且判决在 2026年12月31日、23:59 或之前作出，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场将持续开放至 2026年12月31日，或直到张又侠被判处监禁为止；即使最初的判决不包含监禁，也不影响此规则。任何判决均符合条件，不受后续上诉或刑期变更影响。 本市场结算的主要依据将是中国政府和执法部门的官方信息；但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。