- 特朗普会在 12月31日 之前访问朝鲜吗？5¢5%
President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled openness to renewed engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, including comments in October 2026 that he may meet during his November Asia trip for the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. This builds on prior summits in 2018–2019 and recent remarks about personal rapport, scaled-back U.S.-South Korea drills, and hopes for dialogue before year-end. Trader odds for an actual visit to North Korean territory by December 31, 2026, remain low due to the absence of confirmed logistics inside the country, ongoing North Korean ballistic missile tests and ICBM displays, lack of verified high-level preparations, and historical challenges in reaching substantive agreements on sanctions or denuclearization. Potential catalysts include outcomes from the APEC gathering or any China-mediated signals, though structural barriers such as Pyongyang’s conditions and verification requirements continue to limit near-term probabilities.
规则
如果唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前访问朝鲜，这个市场将按“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，“访问”是指特朗普亲自进入朝鲜的陆地或海域领土。在本市场的时间范围内，特朗普是否进入朝鲜领空，都不会影响本市场的结算。 这项信息的主要结算来源将是特朗普的官方信息、由其已认证社交媒体账号发布的信息，以及朝鲜的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。