- 特朗普会在 2026年12月31日 之前辞职吗？2¢2%
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.4% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside exceptional circumstances such as the Nixon precedent and the lack of any verified public statements, party pressures, or institutional signals indicating intent to step down. With the resolution window extending through the remainder of the term, standard patterns of executive continuity and the absence of recent catalysts like health disclosures or major political developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events, legal outcomes creating intense congressional pressure, or abrupt changes in administration dynamics, though none are currently confirmed.
规则
如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前宣布他已辞职或将辞去总统职务，该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 如果唐纳德·特朗普已不可能辞职或宣布辞职（例如因其他原因被免职等），该市场将立即结算为“否”。 该市场要结算为“是”，只需要特朗普宣布他已辞职或将辞职。他是否真的辞职，不会影响此市场的结算。 此市场结算的主要依据将是美国联邦政府的官方信息；不过，也会采用可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。