- 特朗普会在 2026年12月31日 前设立关税红利吗？1¢1%
Trader consensus on a 95.5% chance that no tariff dividend will be created by December 31, 2026, reflects structural barriers that have persisted since the November 2025 proposal. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key IEEPA-based tariffs that were intended as the primary funding source, while annual tariff collections remain well below the hundreds of billions required for broad payments to adults or households. No White House legislation has advanced, a related House bill remains in committee, and administration statements have stressed the need for congressional approval without firm timelines. With only weeks remaining before the market's resolution date, these fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints have produced near-certain trader positioning. Late-session reconciliation, new tariff authorities, or rapid revenue growth could still shift the outcome, though all face significant procedural and timing hurdles.
规则
如果特朗普政府在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前正式设立关税红利/退税（例如签署联邦立法或采取行政行动），此市场将以“是”结算。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 在本市场的时间范围内签署成为法律的任何法案，或在此期间采取的任何行政行动，均符合条件，无论该法律或行动何时生效。 向任何一类美国个人纳税人发放的任何金额的款项均符合条件，前提是该款项明确主要归因于关税收入，而非例行退税或税收抵免。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。