- 美国会在2026年入侵墨西哥吗？2¢
Tensions in U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, centered on cartel activity and fentanyl flows, have produced recent diplomatic friction and limited border deployments, yet both governments continue coordinated operations that have driven southwest encounters to historic lows. Mexican officials have repeatedly rejected any U.S. military presence on sovereign territory, while U.S. actions remain confined to enhanced patrols, drone restrictions, and joint training rather than cross-border strikes. This pattern of managed pressure alongside deep economic interdependence under frameworks like USMCA underpins trader consensus that no invasion will occur in 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from major border incidents, abrupt policy reversals, or rapid escalation in cartel violence, though current evidence shows no trajectory toward full-scale intervention.
规则
如果美国在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前发动旨在控制墨西哥任何一部分陆地领土的军事攻势，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，在市场创建时由墨西哥或美国事实上控制的土地，将视为该国的主权领土。 本市场的结算依据将是可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。