- 美国会在2026年入侵古巴吗？3¢3%
Sustained U.S. economic sanctions, including an oil blockade and new targeted measures under executive orders, combined with diplomatic channels that have produced no formal negotiations, have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Cuba before year-end. Recent rhetoric from administration officials has emphasized regime change through pressure rather than direct military action, even as Cuba conducts defensive exercises and maintains its political system as a non-negotiable red line. The absence of visible troop movements, operational orders, or escalation signals beyond sanctions in the past month reinforces the market's 96.7% implied probability for no invasion. Late developments such as a major incident, unexpected Cuban involvement in other conflicts, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
规则
如果美国在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前发动旨在控制古巴任何部分陆地领土的军事攻势，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，在市场创建时由古巴或美国实际控制的土地，将被视为该国的主权领土。 本市场将根据可信来源的共识进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。