- 菲律宾参议院会裁定 Sara Duterte 有罪吗？76¢76%
The Philippine Senate impeachment court’s recent decisions have shaped trader assessments of conviction odds for Vice President Sara Duterte. Prosecutors withdrew three of four articles on October 13, narrowing the case to unexplained wealth while asserting that presented evidence on asset disclosures and financial records remains sufficient for removal. Earlier Senate rulings lowered the two-thirds threshold to 14 votes among the roughly 20 participating senator-judges after excluding four absent allies, a change upheld by the Supreme Court. Defense presentation is scheduled to begin November 9, with the trial recessed for budget deliberations. These procedural shifts, combined with the Marcos-aligned majority’s control of the chamber and the permanent disqualification risk tied to any guilty verdict, underpin the current implied probability that conviction will occur before resolution.
规则
如果菲律宾参议院在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前裁定 Sara Duterte 犯有菲律宾众议院于 2026 年 5 月通过的任何一项弹劾条款所指控的罪行，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 如果参议院在未判定 Duterte 有罪的情况下，驳回、发回或以其他方式处置所有相关弹劾条款，本市场可提前判定为有利于“否”。 主要判定依据为菲律宾参议院以及菲律宾政府发布的其他官方信息；但也可采用其他可信报道。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。