- 下一任当选的美国总统会是女性吗？25¢25%
Early polling and prediction markets position Republican Vice President JD Vance as the leading 2028 contender, while the Democratic field remains fluid among Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg. Several prominent women have signaled limited interest, including Gretchen Whitmer softening or stepping back from a bid and Nikki Haley confirming she will not run. The 2024 general election result has heightened trader focus on electability concerns for female nominees in both parties. No major candidates have declared, leaving room for shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and formal primary contests, yet current dynamics sustain the elevated probability assigned to a male winner.
规则
2028年美国总统选举计划于2028年11月7日举行。 如果赢得 2028 年美国总统选举的人是女性，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 本市场的判定来源为 Associated Press、Fox News 和 NBC。三家消息来源都宣布同一位候选人获胜后，本市场即进行结算。如果截至就职日（2029年1月20日），三家消息来源仍未宣布同一位候选人获胜，本市场将根据实际宣誓就职的人选进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。