- 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded key military and nuclear infrastructure, underpins the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Authorities executed a rapid leadership transition, installing Mojtaba Khamenei and elevating IRGC influence while suppressing nationwide protests through mass arrests, executions, and internet controls. No significant military defections or elite fractures have materialized despite economic strain and ongoing low-level resistance activities into August 2026. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline, the absence of credible triggers for imminent collapse—such as coordinated internal revolt or sustained external pressure capable of toppling central authority—aligns with trader consensus. Sudden escalations in protests or unforeseen leadership crises remain low-probability variables that could still shift outcomes.