- 2028年民主党的总统候选人会是女性吗？30¢30%
Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be a man, driven by market pricing that favors several male governors and senators as stronger general-election contenders after the party's 2024 results. Gavin Newsom leads prediction markets near 17%, followed closely by Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Kamala Harris tops early national polls yet receives only single-digit market odds amid questions about her viability. Gretchen Whitmer has signaled she is unlikely to run, and Amy Klobuchar has ruled out a bid, narrowing the pool of prominent female options. The consensus reflects trader assessments of name recognition, fundraising networks, and swing-state appeal among leading male figures rather than current survey preferences.
规则
如果赢得并接受2028年民主党美国总统候选人提名的人是女性，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 此市场的判定依据将是民主党官方来源的共识。 在选举日之前更换民主党提名人，不会改变此市场的判定结果。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。