- 俄罗斯会在2026年12月31日之前入侵北约国家吗？3¢3%
NATO officials reported on November 4, 2026, that alliance defense plans now include precision strikes deep inside Russia targeting bases, supply lines, and industrial sites to halt any incursion into member territory. Russian forces continue hybrid operations across Europe, including airspace violations, alleged sabotage of defense firms, and drone activity near NATO borders, while rebuilding equipment stockpiles and infrastructure near the Baltic and Finnish frontiers. Intelligence assessments from Denmark, Germany, and others describe a low but rising risk of limited Russian probes to test Article 5 unity before Russia regains full conventional capacity, projected around 2029 if Ukraine operations persist. Officials including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte state no imminent conventional threat exists, though Baltic states and supply routes remain focal points amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
规则
如果俄罗斯在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前发动旨在控制任何一个北约国家任何部分的军事攻势，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 就本市场而言，截至 2025年5月28日 由北约成员国或俄罗斯实际控制的土地，将被视为这些国家的主权领土。 由未佩戴标识的人员实施的混合行动或“灰色地带”行动也符合条件，前提是确认这些人员是俄罗斯特工，且其意图是在某片领土上建立事实控制，类似于克里米亚（2014 年）或顿巴斯（2014–2022 年）的情况。 本市场将根据可信来源的共识进行结算。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。