- Mitch McConnell 会在任期结束前卸任参议员吗？3¢3%
McConnell’s February 2025 announcement that he would not seek reelection and would serve out his term through January 2027 remains the dominant factor behind the 96.4% “No” probability. With only weeks left before the term expires and his successor, Rep. Andy Barr, already elected in the November 2026 midterms, traders see minimal incentive or procedural path for an early resignation. Recent developments, including McConnell’s September 2026 return to the Senate floor after a June hospitalization and fall, plus his post-election public statement committing to a smooth transition, have reinforced expectations that he will complete his duties. The only realistic shifts would involve a sudden acute health event or unforeseen personal circumstance forcing resignation in the final weeks, though no such indicators have emerged.
规则
如果 Mitch McConnell 正式宣布有意辞职，或以其他方式在其现任任期预定结束前（2027年1月3日，23:59 ET）离开其美国参议院席位，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，该市场将判定为“否”。 只有在公告表明 McConnell 将于其任期预定结束前离职时，该公告才符合条件。重申既定计划、表示将在任期结束时退休的声明不符合条件。 主要判定依据将是 Mitch McConnell、其办公室或代表的官方声明，和/或美国参议院或政府的官方通信。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。