- 以色列会在2026年重新开放驻伊朗大使馆吗？2¢2%
Persistent military conflict and absence of any bilateral diplomatic channel explain traders' near-certainty that Israel will not reopen an embassy in Iran before year-end. Direct relations have not existed since 1979, and 2026 saw U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February, Iranian missile and proxy responses, a brief June memorandum of understanding, and renewed Hormuz and nuclear tensions into October. Recent statements from both sides emphasize mutual accusations and demands for guarantees rather than normalization. A realistic shift would require a comprehensive ceasefire, verified de-escalation on nuclear and proxy issues, and high-level agreement—developments that remain absent amid stalled talks and ongoing regional friction.
规则
如果以色列政府在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前宣布重新开放或开设任何驻伊朗大使馆或领事馆，或者此类重新开放或开设以其他方式得到确认，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 在本市场期限内发布的官方公告，无论之后是否在该期限内实际开设大使馆或领事馆，都符合判定为“是”的条件。 任何以色列驻伊朗大使馆或领事馆的开设都符合条件，不论其确切地点为何。 未明确承诺开设大使馆或领事馆的公告不予计算，例如一般外交声明、试探性评论或部分/有条件的举措。 判定依据将是以色列政府的官方声明；不过，也会参考可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。