- 以色列会在2027年前吞并约旦河西岸领土吗？3¢3%
Israel’s government has advanced extensive settlement construction, outpost legalization, and administrative measures such as land registration and enforcement authority in Area C, producing de facto control over large portions of the West Bank without formal annexation. Recent cabinet decisions approving dozens of new settlements and related infrastructure reflect coalition priorities, yet formal sovereignty legislation has repeatedly stalled amid U.S. opposition, including explicit statements from the Trump administration against such steps, alongside concerns over diplomatic fallout with Jordan, the EU, and Arab partners. Traders assign 96% probability to no annexation before 2027 because these constraints, combined with the preference for incremental changes ahead of potential 2026 elections, outweigh far-right calls for immediate legal extension of Israeli law. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major security escalation, or post-election coalition shift could still alter the timeline.
规则
如果 Israel 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前正式吞并约旦河西岸的任何领土，该市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 吞并是指以色列政府作出的正式声明或法律行为，声称对约旦河西岸某片领土拥有主权，而该政府在此市场创建时尚未声称对该领土拥有主权。 符合条件的吞并案例包括1980年《耶路撒冷法》和《戈兰高地法》；但以色列定居者在没有正式吞并的情况下声称对约旦河西岸土地拥有行政管理权的情形不计入。 该市场判定的主要依据将是以色列政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。