- Hezbollah 会在 12月31日 前解除武装吗？7¢
International pressure on Hezbollah's disarmament has intensified in recent weeks, centered on a June 2026 trilateral framework agreement among Lebanon, Israel, and the United States that requires the Lebanese state to hold a monopoly on arms. U.S. officials, including State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott on October 14, conditioned billions in Gulf and European reconstruction aid for southern Lebanon on prior disarmament, while noting stalled Rome talks and ongoing contacts with Beirut and Tel Aviv. Hezbollah has rejected phased implementation north of the Litani River, continued rebuilding capabilities such as FPV drones, and insisted on Israeli withdrawal first. Diplomatic efforts involving the EU, France, and Saudi Arabia aim to establish verification mechanisms with the Lebanese Army, amid warnings of potential Israeli escalation before elections and concerns over political timelines in Lebanon.
规则
如果 Hezbollah 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前正式宣布将在黎巴嫩解除武装，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 只有获得 Hezbollah 秘书长（现任 Naim Qassem）、其直接继任者，或在 Hezbollah 秘书长职位空缺时获得 Hezbollah 广泛认可的领导层支持的公告，才符合条件。 就本市场而言，“解除武装”是指公开承诺在黎巴嫩部分或全部放弃或解散其军事力量。 部分解除武装的公告（例如交出某一类武器，或同意分阶段或在特定地区解除武装）只要属于获得认可的解除武装进程，即符合条件。 只有正式公告才符合条件。非正式声明、取决于未来条件的计划、没有正式政策指令的意向声明，或任何其他不构成正式政策公告的声明，均不予考虑。 主要裁定来源包括 Hezbollah 领导层的正式声明；不过，若可信报道广泛一致地确认已实施解除武装政策，也符合条件。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。