- George R. R. Martin 会在 2026 年宣布“The Winds of Winter”吗？7¢7%
Strong trader consensus around a 91.6% implied probability for no announcement of The Winds of Winter in 2026 stems primarily from George R.R. Martin’s extended history of missed deadlines and limited public updates on the manuscript’s completion. With the year more than three-quarters over and no verified signals of a finished draft or imminent reveal, the market reflects skepticism rooted in the author’s documented pattern of prioritizing other projects over the core A Song of Ice and Fire series. Industry observers note Martin’s age and competing commitments continue to slow progress, consistent with past delays that have stretched over a decade. A late-year announcement remains possible if the manuscript reaches a publishable state, though such an outcome would require an abrupt shift from the current trajectory.
规则
如果 George R. R. Martin 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前公开且明确宣布，A Song of Ice and Fire 的一部作品将以《The Winds of Winter》为名出版，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 宣布创作任何未明确命名为《The Winds of Winter》的扩展作品或续作（例如 Fire & Blood、A Sworn Sword），不足以使此市场判定为“是”。书名必须包含“The Winds of Winter”字样，才符合条件。此市场仅关注出版公告。 此市场将根据 George R. R. Martin 的官方信息或可信来源的共识进行判定。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。