- 法国会在12月31日之前通过国家预算吗？65¢65%
France’s 2027 budget process remains stalled in a fragmented National Assembly with no stable majority, leaving the 53% market-implied probability of passage by December 31 closely balanced between procedural workarounds and political risk. Persistent divisions over roughly €43–54 billion in deficit-reduction measures—aimed at narrowing the gap from an expected 5.4% of GDP in 2026 to 5% next year—have produced hundreds of rejected or amended provisions, repeated vote postponements, and a revenue-side examination now extending into early November. Traders weigh the government’s constitutional options, including Article 49.3 or post-deadline ordinances after the 70-day window closes around December 17, against the threat of successful no-confidence motions that could collapse the minority administration before year-end. Recent Senate scheduling for November–December and ongoing bond-market scrutiny of French yields add pressure for resolution, yet comparable 2025–26 episodes show budgets often reaching promulgation only via special procedures rather than clean parliamentary votes. Key near-term catalysts include the Assembly’s final first-reading deadline on November 17, Senate deliberations through early December, and any concessions secured ahead of a potential 49.3 invocation.
规则
如果法国议会通过 2027 年国家预算（Loi de Finances pour 2027），且该预算在 2026年12月31日 23:59 CET（UTC+01:00）或之前刊登于法国官方公报（Journal Officiel），此市场将结算为“是”。否则，该市场将判定为“否”。 符合条件的预算必须为 2027 全年提供资金。特别或紧急拨款法案不符合条件。 此市场结算的主要依据将是法国政府的官方信息，具体而言是法国官方公报（Journal Officiel）（journal-officiel.gouv.fr）。不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。