- 国际法院会在2027年12月31日前裁定以色列或其领导人犯有种族灭绝罪吗？14¢14%
The ICJ case brought by South Africa against Israel remains in the preliminary written pleadings stage, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder not until May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearings and judgment well beyond the 2027 deadline. Recent orders extending deadlines and Colombia’s withdrawal of its intervention in September 2026 underscore the slow pace, while provisional measures issued earlier address risk of harm rather than a final genocide determination. The ICC’s arrest warrants against Israeli leaders cover alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, not genocide, and appeals have not altered that scope. These structural timelines and jurisdictional distinctions underpin traders’ strong consensus that no international court will issue a genocide finding by the end of 2027.
规则
如果国际刑事法院（“ICC”）、国际法院（“ICJ”）或任何具有公认法律地位的临时国际法庭在 2027年12月31日 23:59 ET 前作出判决或定罪，认定以色列国或任何现任或前任以色列官员犯有种族灭绝罪或实施了种族灭绝行为，则本市场将结算为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 临时法庭的判决若要与本市场相关，该法庭必须由联合国或其任何机构设立。 一审定罪或判决即符合结算为“是”的条件，即使仍可提起上诉或尚未在上诉中得到维持。 不属于实体判决的初步或临时认定不符合本市场的结算条件。 结算来源将为 ICC、ICJ 或符合条件的临时法庭发布的官方声明；但也将采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。