- KRG 会在 12月31日 前宣布脱离伊拉克独立吗？5¢5%
The high implied probability against a KRG independence declaration by December 31 stems primarily from sustained emphasis on federal coordination and internal stabilization rather than secession. Following the September 30, 2026, conclusion of the international Coalition mission, KRG leaders including Masoud Barzani have publicly stressed joint security arrangements with Baghdad to address threats such as ISIS remnants, while Peshmerga forces operate in alignment with federal structures. Recent activities center on reactivating the Kurdistan parliament, advancing cabinet formation between the KDP and PUK, negotiating budget allocations based on the 2024 census, and managing oil export routes amid regional tensions. Marking the ninth anniversary of the 2017 referendum has remained commemorative without renewed unilateral steps, as external opposition from Baghdad, Turkey, and Iran, combined with domestic priorities like minority protection strategies and Iran-related diplomacy, continues to constrain any near-term independence push.
规则
如果库尔德斯坦地区政府（KRG），或KRG的执政党、联盟或行政官员，在2026年12月31日 23:59 ET之前正式宣布成立一个脱离伊拉克的新独立国家，并声称对伊拉克境内某个指定领土拥有治理权，则此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 只要符合条件的公开公告已经发布，就足以判定为“是”，无论治理权是否实际建立、维持或得到承认。 该声明必须包含由该组织或其领导层发布的明确公开声明，宣布成立一个脱离伊拉克的独立政治实体，并声称对先前由伊拉克管辖的某个已明确指出的地理区域拥有政府管辖权。 所声称的领土无需精确定义，但至少必须部分明确说明。所声称领土的大部分必须位于该市场创建时伊拉克国际公认边界以内。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。