- Belgium会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？10¢10%
- Italy会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？8¢8%
- The Netherlands会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？8¢8%
- New Zealand会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？8¢8%
- Greece会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？7¢7%
- 美国会在2027年之前承认巴勒斯坦吗？6¢6%
- Israel会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？6¢6%
- Finland会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？5¢5%
- Austria会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？4¢4%
- Germany会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？4¢4%
- Japan会在2027年前承认巴勒斯坦吗？3¢3%
Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the September 2025 wave of formal recognitions by Australia, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and several others during UN General Assembly sessions and France-Saudi coordinated efforts on the two-state solution. As of October 2026, trader focus centers on remaining non-recognizing states such as New Zealand, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy, with implied probabilities reflecting limited near-term catalysts. The Palestinian Authority’s postponement of scheduled elections to September 2027 has drawn expressions of regret from some recognizing governments that had conditioned steps on democratic reforms. Broader factors include ongoing UN diplomatic initiatives, regional statements on East Jerusalem status, and the absence of new major bilateral announcements in recent weeks that could shift additional Western or G20 positions before the December 2026 resolution deadline.
规则
本市场将根据截至 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 正式承认巴勒斯坦为国家的国家进行结算。 宣布有意承认不足以将本市场结算为“是。”只有政府正式承认巴勒斯坦国，才会作为本市场结算为“是”的依据。 本市场结算的主要依据将是政府官方信息。不过，也会参考可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。