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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, backed by consistent polling leads of roughly 17 to 25 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa and nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as safe or solid Democratic. Virginia’s partisan lean, Warner’s long tenure since 2009, and his unopposed Democratic nomination contribute to trader consensus favoring his reelection. Mizusawa, a retired Army general who prevailed in the August primary, faces structural challenges in a state where Democrats have held both Senate seats for over a decade. Late developments such as significant shifts in national conditions, major campaign events, or unforeseen candidate-specific issues could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 election.