- Vance今年会宣布他不会在2028年竞选总统吗？3¢3%
Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly deferred any decision on a 2028 presidential bid until after the November midterms, describing himself as a procrastinator on major personal choices and citing his four young children and wife Usha’s preference for public service over politics. As the clear frontrunner in early Republican primary polling, he has focused statements on supporting GOP candidates in the current cycle rather than closing the door on a future run, consistent with historical patterns for sitting vice presidents. Other potential contenders, including Sen. Ted Cruz, have begun positioning themselves, yet no recent announcements, polling shifts, or administration events have prompted Vance to rule himself out. Traders therefore assign low probability to an explicit withdrawal announcement in the remainder of 2026.
规则
如果 JD Vance 在市场创建后至 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 期间宣布不会参加 2028 年美国总统选举、竞选美国总统，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 符合条件的宣布必须明确表示 Vance 不会在 2028 年竞选总统，或永远不会竞选总统。表示 Vance 尚未决定是否参选的声明不符合条件。 该市场结算的主要依据将是 JD Vance 或其官方代表提供的官方信息；不过，可信报道达成共识也足以作为依据。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。