- 民主党会赢得众议院中属于 VA-02 的席位吗？88¢
- 共和党会赢得 VA-02 的众议院席位吗？13¢
Elaine Luria holds an 87.5% implied probability in the VA-02 House race according to current trader consensus, with incumbent Jen Kiggans at 12.5%. The district's status as a perennial swing seat—flipping parties multiple times since 2008 and splitting recent presidential and gubernatorial votes—sets up the rematch between the two Navy veterans. A mid-October Christopher Newport University poll of likely voters showed Luria ahead 46-43, inside the margin of error, with Luria leading among women, independents, college graduates, and Black voters while Kiggans held advantages among men and non-college voters. Cost of living ranks as the top voter concern, an area where Luria holds an edge in issue ratings. National midterm dynamics, with Democrats seeking House gains against a Republican administration, further bolster Luria's positioning in forecasting models and trader assessments, though the close local numbers and roughly three weeks until November 3 leave room for late shifts in turnout or messaging.
规则
本市场将根据在 2026 年中期选举中赢得美国众议院 VA-02 国会选区席位的候选人所属政党进行结算。中期选举将于 2026年11月3日 举行。 候选人的党派归属将根据其在选票上注明或可通过其他方式确认的党派身份确定，时间点为本市场的判定来源最终确认2026年所有众议院选举结果之时。如果候选人的选票上未注明其属于民主党或共和党，则将在本市场的判定来源最终确认所有众议院选举结果之时，根据候选人最近一次表示有意与之组成党团的政党，将其视为该两党之一的成员。 本市场将根据可信报道所形成的共识所表明的选举结果进行结算。如存在歧义，本市场将仅依据美国政府公布的官方结果进行判定，具体以Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)公布的结果为准。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。