- USMCA 会在 2026 年延期吗？7¢7%
At the July 1, 2026, USMCA joint review, the United States formally declined to renew the agreement for a new 16-year term, while Canada and Mexico affirmed support, activating annual reviews under Article 34.7 and starting a countdown to potential expiration in 2036. This U.S. position, driven by demands to address trade deficits, tighten automotive rules of origin, reduce non-market content, and adjust labor, agriculture, and tariff provisions, has kept the pact in force but shifted negotiations to bilateral tracks with Mexico and Canada. Ongoing talks have produced interim proposals such as 10-year extensions with frequent reviews, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress amid Section 232 tariffs, disputes over steel, aluminum, autos, and produce imports, and USTR comments sought ahead of the 2027 review. These developments have led traders to assign high probability against any full extension occurring before year-end.
规则
如果《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》（USMCA）在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前正式延期，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 要构成符合条件的延期，三方都必须正式延长协定的期限。这可以通过书面确认各方希望依据 USMCA 第 34.7 条将期限再延长一段时间来实现，也可以通过其他能够明确且确定地延长期限的正式方式实现，例如一致通过协定修正案。无论延期是否还包括经协商对原协定作出的修改，均符合条件。 以下情况不符合条件：没有正式延期相伴的公告；仅延长个别条款但未延长协定本身期限；并非三方全部作出的延期承诺；以及以单独或后续协定取代 USMCA，而非继续现有协定。 主要结算依据为美国、加拿大和墨西哥的官方信息；但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。