- 美国会在 12月31日 前获得伊朗浓缩铀吗？3¢3%
Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on resolving the disposition of Tehran’s remaining highly enriched uranium stockpile, estimated by the IAEA at over 200 kilograms of material enriched to 60 percent prior to 2025 strikes. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum outlined IAEA-supervised on-site down-blending as a minimum approach during a 60-day negotiation window, while recent October-November draft frameworks propose transfer to a third country or further reduction in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has rejected any removal of the material, describing it as a national asset, and conditioned further talks on seven demands including asset releases. Ongoing Doha-mediated discussions and IAEA access limitations continue to shape verification challenges, with no confirmed transfer or acquisition by the United States as of early November 2026.
规则
如果美国政府或军方在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前正式宣布或确认已取得任何数量、此前由伊朗控制的浓缩铀，本市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 “持有”是指美国实际保管或控制该浓缩铀，无论其存放在美国境内还是其他地方。如果公告所述的是美国将在之后取得伊朗浓缩铀的持有权，无论是交易、协议、承诺还是计划，均不符合条件。 符合条件的伊朗浓缩铀持有权可以通过任何方式取得，包括经协商移交或扣押。 如果可信报道普遍形成共识，认为美国已取得伊朗浓缩铀的持有权，即使美国没有正式公告，也符合结算为“是”的条件。 本市场的主要结算依据为美国政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道普遍形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。