- 美国会在 2026年12月31日 之前试验核武器吗？5¢
U.S. nuclear testing remains constrained by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on science-based stockpile stewardship and subcritical experiments to certify weapons without explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted internal planning documents targeting potential action before 2028, yet NNSA and military leaders have reiterated no technical or military requirement exists. A September-October 2026 non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site focused on refining detection of low-yield or decoupled foreign tests rather than advancing U.S. detonation capabilities. Congressional resistance, including Democratic efforts to block related funding and commitments from nominees against unnecessary tests, combined with 6–36 month preparation timelines, has kept trader-implied probabilities low for any test by late 2026.
规则
如果美国在所列日期（ET）或之前进行核试验，此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 核试验的定义是：美国蓄意引爆一种非战斗用途的装置，并产生核链式反应（裂变或聚变），无论其当量大小。 意外事故、放射性散布装置（使用常规炸药散布放射性物质的炸弹，例如“脏弹”）或第三方的行动，均不计入此市场的判定。 美国未明确承认的试验仍可能符合条件，前提是可信报道形成明确共识，将该核爆归因于美国。例如，如果可信报道将其归因于美国，那么类似于1979年“Vela Incident”且未获承认的核试验也会计入。 此市场的判定依据将是可信报道所形成的广泛共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。