- 2027年12月31日前，乌克兰会发生未遂政变吗？16¢16%
- 2026年12月31日前，乌克兰会发生未遂政变吗？4¢4%
US pressure on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has intensified in mid-October 2026, with President Trump publicly stating it is time for a new Ukrainian leader and Elon Musk echoing calls for his departure, coinciding with US restrictions on Starlink access and intelligence sharing tied to Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy targets. Zelenskyy has rejected resignation demands, conditioned any election on a 60-day Russian ceasefire, and reaffirmed his intent to defend Ukrainian territory. Domestic discussions of legitimacy persist due to the expired presidential term under martial law, with opposition figures warning of instability if elections remain postponed, while polling shows Zelenskyy competitive against potential challengers such as former General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. These factors shape trader views on risks of internal power challenges amid the ongoing conflict.
规则
如果在市场创建至 2027年12月31日、23:59 ET 期间的任何时间，乌克兰发生的政变企图受到广泛报道，则此市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将以“否”结算。 政变企图是指军方、安全部队或其他国家行为者（或其派系）协调并蓄意推翻乌克兰政府或其领导层，或非法夺取其控制权的行动。非国家力量的革命行动、零星抗议或普遍动荡，单独而言均不符合条件。 乌克兰政府声称政变企图已遭挫败（例如通过逮捕或阻止计划中的行动），只有在可信的独立消息来源广泛报道该事件，并明确将其定性为政变企图时，才会计入判定为“是”。如果没有人尝试执行政变，则被挫败的阴谋或相关逮捕均不符合条件。 判定依据将是可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。