- 乌克兰和平公投会在12月31日前安排好吗？7¢
Ukrainian law requires a nationwide referendum for any territorial concessions in a peace agreement with Russia, and recent polls show 68% public support for such a vote to ratify terms. President Zelensky has signaled readiness for both elections and a referendum contingent on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, yet Russia has rejected proposals for even a 60-day truce and insists on a comprehensive deal instead. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks remain stalled amid disputes over Donbas control and legitimacy issues, with no official scheduling announced despite constitutional thresholds for voter signatures. These barriers, combined with active martial law restrictions, underpin traders' low implied probability that a qualifying peace referendum will be scheduled in the near term.
规则
如果乌俄战争和平公投在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前于乌克兰正式安排，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 俄乌战争和平公投是指任何与俄乌战争中的和平相关，或与旨在结束战争的和平协议相关的全国性投票。 只有在具有相关法律管辖权的乌克兰政府主管部门正式确定公投举行日期并予以公开宣布后，才视为该公投已安排。 符合条件的公投一经安排，本市场即判定为“是”。之后对公投合法性的法律挑战或其他质疑均不会影响本市场的判定。 本市场判定的主要依据将是乌克兰政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。