- 土耳其会在2026年推动制定新宪法吗？14¢14%
Recent parliamentary rhetoric and preparatory steps have not shifted expectations for concrete constitutional action in 2026. President Erdoğan’s October 1 address renewed calls for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, and adviser Mehmet Uçum identified that date as the formal start of groundwork focused on principles and consensus. However, ruling-party officials and advisers have framed realistic drafting and adoption for after the 2028 elections in the next parliamentary term, stressing the need for broad cross-party agreement and a required referendum. AK Party preparatory work concluded earlier in the year without advancing to parliamentary votes or public ballots. With the ruling alliance lacking the supermajority for passage and no scheduled votes or referendums imminent before year-end, traders assign an 86% probability to no meaningful movement occurring in 2026.
规则
如果在 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之前正式宣布将在土耳其举行旨在通过新宪法的全民公投，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 符合条件的全民公投是指在土耳其全国范围内举行的、旨在通过新宪法的任何投票。旨在批准一项或多项宪法修正案的公投不符合条件。 符合条件的公告必须注明公投日期，或明确宣布将举行公投。只要在指定日期之前发布公告，即符合条件，无论公投计划何时举行。 如果在指定期限内未经公投便正式通过新宪法（例如通过所需的议会特别多数），本市场将立即判定为“是”。 该市场的主要结算依据为土耳其政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。