- 土耳其宪法公投会在2026年宣布吗？18¢18%
President Erdoğan’s October 1, 2026, address to parliament launched preparatory discussions for a new civilian constitution, with top adviser Mehmet Uçum later framing October 1 as the start of intellectual groundwork rather than immediate drafting. Ruling alliance statements and recent comments from Uçum and parliamentary leaders indicate the substantive drafting and any required public vote are targeted for after the 2028 elections, during the next parliamentary term. The ruling bloc lacks the supermajority needed for parliamentary passage without opposition support, and ongoing “Terror-Free Türkiye” talks have not produced a timeline or draft advancing a 2026 referendum. These factors align with trader consensus that no referendum will be formally announced this year.
规则
如果土耳其在 2026年12月31日, 23:59 ET 前正式宣布举行宪法公投，则该市场的结果为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 宪法公投是指土耳其全国就是否批准一项或多项土耳其宪法修正案举行的任何投票。 正式宣布是指宣布公投的具体日期，或明确宣布将举行公投（例如，宪法修正案在议会通过并由总统提交公投之后）。 该市场的主要结算依据为土耳其政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。