- 特朗普会在2026年试图解雇沃什吗？2¢2%
Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair anchors the 97.5% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Public statements from the White House continue to signal reliance on Warsh amid ongoing inflation pressures and FOMC rate decisions, even as the president has critiqued other board members. Institutional norms around central bank independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with Warsh's hawkish policy actions and vows to prioritize the Fed's price-stability mandate, have sustained trader consensus. While tail risks include escalation if inflation data forces further rate hikes that clash with administration preferences, no qualifying formal action or unequivocal announcement has materialized, keeping the resolution firmly in "No" territory.
规则
如果 Donald Trump 在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 前公开且明确地宣布将免去 Kevin Warsh 的美联储主席职务，或采取正式行动以实现这一目的，例如发布指示或正式请求，则该市场将结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 附带条件的声明（例如“Warsh 必须下台或降息”）、表达意图的声明（例如“我打算解雇 Warsh”）或其他不明确的非正式声明，均不符合条件。 如果 Kevin Warsh 在符合条件的行动发生前辞职，或以其他方式正式离任 Federal Reserve 主席一职，该市场将立即判定为“否”。 试图解除 Warsh 的 Federal Reserve 理事会成员职务，本身并不符合条件。 结算来源将是 Donald Trump 的官方信息，但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。