- Trump Space Academy 会在 2027年6月30日 之前开始训练吗？11¢11%
Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to “No” for the U.S. Space Academy commencing actual academic instruction by June 30, 2027, because the project remains in early planning with multiple statutory and logistical hurdles unresolved. An executive order signed August 28, 2026, established a NASA-led Presidential Commission with a 120-day mandate to recommend governance, curricula, location, and legislation; its first meeting occurred September 9, followed by a Request for Information on state hosts due in late October. Official timelines target groundbreaking in 2027, temporary facilities for an initial class of 300 in 2028, and a permanent campus by 2031. Congressional authorization and appropriations are still required, and historical precedents for new federal academies show multi-year lead times for site development, faculty hiring, and enrollment. No recent model runs or agency updates indicate acceleration sufficient to meet the market’s strict training-start criterion.
规则
如果 United States Space Academy 在市场创建至 2027年6月30日 23:59 ET 之间的任何时候开始培训首届学生，则此市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 “United States Space Academy”指由 NASA 牵头的联邦服务学院；根据行政命令“Establishing the United States Space Academy”，该学院的设立已获指示，该命令于 2026年8月28日 签署。“开始培训”是指学院正式开始为首届注册学生或学员提供学术教学或培训。 成立 United States Space Academy 总统委员会、提交委员会报告、颁布授权立法、选定地点，或建造或启用设施，均不构成培训开始。如果教学尚未开始，仅录取或注册学生也不符合条件。此市场判定为“是”的必要条件是，第一届学生的教学必须在 2027年6月30日 前实际开始。 此市场的主要判定依据将是 NASA 和白宫的官方公告；但也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。